Special Election Win Could Shift Power to GOP
Arnold Schwarzenegger has battled some formidable on-screen foes in his lifetime, from merciless Terminators to dastardly dictators.
But the new fight the Republican governor officially launched Tuesday has the potential to fundamentally change the balance of power in California.
If Schwarzenegger emerges victorious from the 153-day special election campaign ahead, he will not only give his re-election chances a major boost, he could cripple the state's Democratic power base for years to come.
But if the governor's proposals are defeated Nov. 8, he will have squandered his political capital and set himself up to be dismissed as another Jesse Ventura, a bombastic entertainer with a tin ear for politics.
"This will be a turning point for the governor," said Larry Gerston, a political science professor at San Jose State University and co-author of "Recall! California's Political Earthquake."
On the surface, the centerpiece of the special election is the governor's package of three initiatives dealing with education, budget and political districts.
But the ballot measure that could have the most far-reaching impact is one Schwarzenegger has yet to endorse. It would compel public employee unions to get approval each year from members to use their dues for political purposes.
If approved, the proposal would undermine the strength of the powerful labor unions -- including prison guards, teachers and firefighters -- that have long provided the financial muscle and grassroots support for Democrats.
Schwarzenegger has voiced support for the idea in principle but has so far sought to use his potential endorsement of the measure as leverage to drive Democrats to the negotiating table.
Aides to the governor contend that the proposal won't have the money or momentum it needs to pass unless Schwarzenegger backs it.
But Grover Norquist, a leading conservative champion of the union dues check-off movement, said Tuesday that he is confident the initiative will have the money it needs to pass no matter what Schwarzenegger does.
"The resources will be there to win this fight," said Norquist, head of Americans for Tax Reform in Washington. "The California business community recognizes the importance of this and how completely doable it is."
Norquist and conservatives tried in 1998 to convince California voters to embrace a similar measure but were soundly rebuffed. But the tables could be turned if Schwarzenegger decides to throw his support behind the proposal.
Either way, Democrats and their union allies understand the stakes.
"I don't know what Schwarzenegger has up his sleeves here, but he's trying to break the union movement, obviously," said Democratic strategist Kam Kuwata. "And I think everyone on the other side realizes what he's trying to do."
There is little indication that Schwarzenegger's opponents, who have spent millions on television ads that have driven the once-popular governor's approval ratings down into the 40s, are in any mood to compromise.
"I think he is a bully," said Art Pulaski, head of the California Labor Federation, AFL-CIO. "And he has set a line in the sand like a bully on a beach, and somebody has to push back."
The challenge for Schwarzenegger is one that has tripped him up so far: How to separate the unions from the people they represent.
In trying to cast unions as powerful special interests controlling Sacramento, Schwarzenegger has roused the thousands of union members, including nurses, police officers, teachers and firefighters, who see the governor's assault as a personal attack. Should the governor endorse the union dues measure, it could have a similar boomerang effect and end up galvanizing the very forces Schwarzenegger is trying to defeat.
"In his mind, he sees this as some mythic battle between a superhero and the forces of evil," said Republican strategist Ray McNally, who is working with the state prison guard union. "Trouble is, the force of evil in his mind are teachers, nurses, firefighters, peace officers, public servants and legislators."
In the months ahead, Schwarzenegger will try to make the distinction clear for voters and distill his message down into the same kind of clear appeal for help that propelled him into office.
"The message of the campaign is a pretty simple one: reform versus status quo," said Todd Harris, one of the governor's campaign spokesmen. "It's fundamental change in Sacramento versus more of the same. And one of the reasons why the governor is being protested so doggedly is because the forces of the status quo know that if these reforms pass their gravy train is going to dry up."
Whether voters answer the governor's plea Nov. 8 could well determine whether Schwarzenegger enters 2006 as an unstoppable incumbent or a hobbled Republican.
"He's thrown an awful lot of political capital on the line," said San Jose State's Gerston. "If he prevails, you might as well forget about any kind of opposition in 2006. If he loses, he's going to be hard-pressed to even consider running in 2006."