Governor Sets Aside Reform Themes in Favor of Anti-tax Crusade
The only problem? 'There is no serious proposal ... to reverse Prop. 13'
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger changed the pitch for his Nov. 8 special election this week, dumping the old "reform to rebuild'' message and mounting a new theme built around the fear of taxes -- a move that reflects the importance of the election to the governor's future and that of the California Republican Party.
The governor unveiled the strategy Tuesday before the earnest faces of elderly homeowners seated in folding chairs in the backyard of a well-worn ranch home outside San Diego. He derided what he called an insidious Democratic effort to overhaul the landmark Proposition 13 property tax limit.
"They want to back us into a corner so eventually they can force us to raise taxes,'' he added. "From now to election day, I want to talk about all the specific taxes (they) want to change."
Insiders say the no-new-taxes theme illustrates the harsh reality facing Schwarzenegger, who wooed state voters early on by portraying himself as a bipartisan reformer ready to bust up gridlock in Sacramento. His agenda has stalled, his approval ratings are sliding, and his call for a special election has been opposed by almost two-thirds of voters in a state poll.
"How do you sell redistricting, and teacher tenure and budget caps? They're all so arcane,'' said Martin Nolan, a longtime national political writer, of Schwarzenegger's ballot proposals. "So, let's find a hot-button issue -- taxes.''
The strategy is a classic in politics, said Michael Semler, government professor at Cal State Sacramento.
"If you don't have substance, scare 'em,'' he said. "If the facts aren't there, go with theatrics.''
Talking about taxes, some observers point out, also is a way to get voters riled enough to show up for what's likely to be a low-turnout election in November.
"Clearly, Schwarzenegger is appealing to the Republican base with this talk on taxes,'' said Tony Quinn, a GOP political analyst. "No one really knows much about the upcoming election, so he has to find something to get his supporters motivated.''
That strategy was outlined by the governor's media expert, Don Sipple, in campaign calls this month to wealthy contributors. Sipple said that "based on a lot of polling,'' the governor's special election campaign will aim to create a "phenomenon of anger'' among voters, particularly toward public employee unions, which the governor has charged are behind much of the Democrats' push for more spending and higher taxes, according to a recent Los Angeles Times report.
A separate initiative, one largely financed by the Republican Party and people close to Schwarzenegger, to limit the ability of public employee unions to contribute to political campaigns also has qualified for the ballot.
Should the measures win in November, the governor would be in position for a successful re-election campaign, and Republicans also could gain at the polls.
Ironically, it was Schwarzenegger's own economic adviser, businessman Warren Buffett, who caused a major flap in 2003 when he raised the issue of Prop. 13 -- and urged an overhaul of the legendary property-tax measure to ensure that average homeowners wouldn't subsidize billionaires like himself.
The intense opposition to touching Prop. 13 may be one of the reasons the governor is shifting his rationale for the special election, which first was aimed at budget issues and attacks on "special interests,'' then morphed to "reform to rebuild.''
The effort mirrors the creative and successful playbook used by Republican President Bush's top strategist, Karl Rove, said Nolan, a former Boston Globe writer based in San Francisco who occasionally writes opinion pieces for The Chronicle. Bush's campaign themes continually changed, first in 2000 by defining him as a "compassionate conservative,'' switching to a "reformer with results,'' later touting "prosperity with a purpose,'' then urging voters to "change the tone'' in Washington, D.C.
Schwarzenegger's effort to talk taxes, though, comes with risks.
"As far as I know there is no serious proposal floated by any Democrat to reverse Prop. 13 or reinstate the car tax,'' said Phil Trounstine, who heads San Jose State's Survey and Policy Research Institute and was an aide to former Democratic Gov. Gray Davis.
Trounstine said that reality could undermine the governor's credibility with voters in Democratic-inclined California -- and credibility is a commodity that, once damaged, is hard for a politician to get back.
Some Democratic lawmakers and state Treasurer Phil Angelides, a candidate for governor in 2006, have suggested boosting income tax levels for the wealthiest Californians as a way to close the budget gap. Polls show voters aren't opposed to that approach.
Voters approved such a tax increase on higher-income citizens last year to pay for mental health services, and Schwarzenegger, in this year's budget announcement, trumpeted his plans to push for more housing for the homeless, paid for specifically with the help of that measure.
Still, taxes remain a key voter concern -- because the alternative to slowing government spending is raising more revenue, and that means taxes, said Joel Fox, co-chair of Citizens to Save California, which is backing the governor's initiative effort.
"I think voters have to understand what's at stake,'' he said. "It's a legitimate argument the governor is putting forward.''
Some grassroots Democrats are outraged by the governor's all-taxes, all- the-time campaign plan.
"It's the shifting sands of the Schwarzenegger desert,'' says Gloria Nieto, the vice chair of the Democratic National committee's gay and lesbian caucus. "He's trying to change the subject. This thing was never about Prop. 13, and all of a sudden it appears.''
Assembly Speaker Fabian Núñez, D-Los Angeles, also is talking tough. On Thursday. he accused Schwarzenegger of making "reckless and shameful'' claims that Democrats want higher taxes because the governor has failed to generate interest in his special election policy agenda. He called Schwarzenegger's assertions "the equivalent to the search for weapons of mass destruction."
"They are phony, fabricated charges designed to whip up hysteria,'' Núñez told a Sacramento Press Club luncheon.
Still, Núñez said he was hopeful that Democrats and the governor could negotiate a bipartisan alternative to the initiatives that have qualified for the Nov. 8 ballot.
Schwarzenegger spokeswoman Margita Thompson defended the governor's rhetoric, saying his budget initiative is designed to curb the type of higher spending Democrats want to finance with higher taxes.
"What is most important is that we get to a position where the state never again spends more than it takes in,'' she said. "So far the only Democratic solution has been to raise taxes.''