State GOP has 'Army' to Fight in Election
Wednesday, June 15, 2005 - SACRAMENTO - Building on the strategy President George W. Bush used to lure record numbers of voters to the polls last year, California Republicans are poised to deploy a volunteer army to turn out votes for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's initiatives and other measures on the Nov. 8 ballot.
The state GOP has spent more than $2 million to hire full-time, professional staffers for Los Angeles, Ventura and 12 other county parties, originally for Schwarzenegger's anticipated 2006 re-election bid but now to ensure a policy victory for him in this year's special election.
Local GOP officials said they are bracing for an outpouring of money and manpower from the governor's labor and Democratic opponents seeking to counter their efforts, but say they are prepared to compete head to head for each vote.
"The unions are fighting for their political lives, they're fighting to keep from losing control of the Democratic Party," said Linda Boyd, chairwoman of the Los Angeles County Republican Party. "For this reason, we have to do everything we can to be as effective as we were last November, if not more so."
By creating an army of organized, technologically equipped get-out-the-vote volunteers in every precinct, Bush scored close victories in key battleground states and became the first presidential candidate to earn more than 50 percent of the vote since 1988.
The California Republican Party hopes to replicate this system to help Schwarzenegger secure voter approval of three constitutional amendments as well as two measures the governor has yet to weigh in on.
Schwarzenegger, who issued the special-election proclamation Monday, is pushing initiatives to overhaul budgeting, political districts and teacher hiring.
The measures he has not endorsed include one requiring public-employee unions to obtain written consent annually from members before spending dues on political activities and another mandating parental notification before minors undergo abortions.
"The goal is to register voters, communicate with them, and then turn them out on election day," said Jarryd Gonzales, political director of the state GOP, which expects to unleash 4,000 volunteers in L.A. County as part of the state's overall ground game.
But Democrats remain generally nonplussed. California is majority Democratic, with two Democratic U.S. senators, a Democratic Legislature, and all statewide constitutional offices other than the governorship controlled by Democrats.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by 1.4 million voters - an 8 percentage point advantage - and Bush was pummeled in the polls here last November by Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry.
For months, Democrats have worked with labor unions and rank-and-file voters, using the Internet, television and radio ads, and the bully pulpit of elective office to drive Schwarzenegger's poll numbers below 50 percent and diminish public support for the special election.
And with unions such as the California Teachers Association increasing dues to generate $50 million alone for the just-started campaign, more of the same can be expected, officials say.
In fact, Alliance for a Better California, a group of labor unions pushing initiatives of their own, has hired a veteran of the Kerry campaign's ground game who helped the senator secure more votes than any other Democratic presidential candidate in history.
"It doesn't surprise me that (Republicans) are going to use the ground game, but they don't have the bodies in California," said Roger Salazar, a Democratic operative working for a group led by the CTA, and a veteran of state and national campaigns. "Even during the recall they had a tough time with their ground operation. I doubt it will be very effective."
Among the state GOP battle plans:
!bbox!‚Identifying Republican and like-minded independent voters by how likely they are to vote and which issues they are most concerned with. Messages, including direct-mail literature, will be tailored to each group. Likely absentee voters will be targeted before absentee voting starts, not after.
!bbox!‚Computerizing all voter information so it can be analyzed and tactical adjustments can be made throughout the campaign. Volunteers are armed with personal data assistants containing information and even sample scripts that can be used to woo individual voters.
!bbox!‚During the last three days of the campaign, the "72 Hour Task Force" will kick in. Rides to the polls are offered to those who need them, doors are knocked on again and more phone calls are made to confirm that voters who promised their support will deliver.
Political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe, a public policy professor at the University of Southern California, said the success of this strategy depends on a number of wild cards, including Republicans having the money and manpower to pull it off.
"This is not a candidate election, this is about a finite number of issues," Jeffe said. "How are Republicans going to frame that and how are voters going to react to that?"