Union Dues Measure Leads in Early Poll
Labor consultant says margin will narrow as campaign unfolds.
Proponents jumped out to an early lead Wednesday in the first polling on an initiative to force public employee unions to obtain individual members' annual written consent before spending dues money on politics.
The Field Poll survey of likely voters showed 57 percent of them backing the so-called "paycheck protection" measure and 34 percent opposing the initiative that has qualified for the special election ballot scheduled for Nov. 8.
"That simply confirms some polling numbers we have that are virtually the same," said longtime anti-tax activist Lew Uhler, who has galvanized support for the measure. "I think the innate sense of fairness and the desire of people to protect public employees is evident in these results."
Larry Grisolano, the Los Angeles-based political consultant to the campaign opposing the employee consent initiative, said the early polling results did not come as a surprise to him. Grisolano predicted the margin would narrow as the campaign unfolds.
"We see this often in ballot measures, where the initial appeal is greater than when people find out what they're really about," Grisolano said. "We have to let people know ... that this is a power grab masquerading as campaign reform, that it is an attempt to make nurses and teachers and firefighters play by a different set of rules than (Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's) millionaire contributors and big business trade associations."
In other initiatives that have qualified for the special election ballot, two proposals that would provide for prescription drug discounts are ahead by substantial margins. But the one backed by pharmaceutical manufacturers that would make the reductions voluntary is favored by a higher percentage of voters than a competing measure supported by consumer advocacy and labor groups. That measure would require the drug companies to provide low-income residents with cheaper prescription drugs or face a cutoff from the state's Medi-Cal program.
By a relatively slight five-point margin, voters are also favoring a measure that would require the notification of parents of unemancipated minors before the girls could receive abortions, the poll found.
Although proponents took pleasure in their 23-point advantage on the union dues initiative, the early polling finds the measure faring not nearly as well as the 1998 version of paycheck protection - which would have applied to private as well as public sector union members - at a similar stage of surveying.
In December 1997, registered voters polled by Field liked the dues-restriction proposal by a margin of 72 percent to 22 percent. They eventually defeated it, 53 percent to 47 percent.
Poll Director Mark DiCamillo attributed the narrower gap in this year's survey to a relatively larger number of Democrats lining up in opposition, due largely to the six months of attention that has already been focused on Schwarzenegger's high-profile campaign for the special election.
"We're just a little further along in the process and the awareness is a little greater," DiCamillo said. "Voters seem to have a little more knowledge about it because there's been such a larger buildup to this special election. "
As for the battling drug initiatives, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers Association proposal is leading among likely voters by 57 percent to 26 percent. The Health Access-sponsored measure also is ahead, but not by as much - 48 percent to 33 percent.
If they both win, the one with more votes will be enacted into law, according to the secretary of state's office.
PhRMA political consultant Frank Schubert said backers of the manufacturers' initiative are "very pleased" by the early polling.
"It reflects what we've seen in our early research, that Californians agree with us that the approach we've put before them is sound and will benefit millions of Californians," he said.
Health Access Executive Director Anthony Wright said the bottom line on the poll is that most Californians want cheaper prescription drugs now.
"We're also confident that voters will go with the measure supported by seniors and consumer groups as opposed to the one supported by the drug companies," he said.
The Field Poll showed voters favoring parental notification of teen abortions, 48 percent to 43 percent.
"I just hope that parents keep in mind that ultimately the objective is the well-being of our young daughters," said proponent Paul Laubacher.
Initiative opponent Kathy Kneer, president of Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California, said the closeness of the poll indicates to her that voters are having problems with the measure.
"Parents recognize that the best way my teen will talk to me is that I talk to them and I listen to them and I have that relationship built," Kneer said.