Poll: Governor Would Lose in '06
In another reversal, Democrats Angelides and Westly would both win in one-on-one races.
Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's streak of lousy poll readings continued Tuesday with the latest Field survey showing most California voters disinclined to re-elect him and two Democratic contenders narrowly beating him in one-on-one match-ups.
Schwarzenegger has yet to say whether he plans to seek another term in the November 2006 statewide election.
But in a reversal of his standing from four months ago, Schwarzenegger is now finding that 57 percent of the electorate is "not inclined" to support him compared with the 39 percent who are still in his corner, according to the Field Poll of registered California voters.
Field Poll's numbers in February showed 56 percent of the state's voters inclined to vote for Schwarzenegger, while 42 percent were not.
"This was a political figure who had a really unique profile about a year ago," poll Director Mark DiCamillo said. "A year ago, Democrats were supportive of his job performance, as were nonpartisans. He had a unique popularity among Latinos and younger voters. This was an interesting political personality who kind of broke the mold of what you traditionally see."
"Now," DiCamillo continued, "it doesn't appear that way at all."
With Schwarzenegger's numbers sinking, the poll found support rising for the governor's two announced Democratic opponents.
State Treasurer Phil Angelides is locked in a tight race with Schwarzenegger, leading him by a margin of 46 percent to 42 percent. That is a significant shift from February, when the Republican governor led Angelides, 52 percent to 35 percent.
State Controller Steve Westly also holds a four-point lead over Schwarzenegger in the survey, 44 percent to 40 percent. Westly trailed Schwarzenegger in February, 52 percent to 33 percent.
DiCamillo said the Democrats' standings represent logical upswings among party voters who first and foremost don't like Schwarzenegger, even if they are unfamiliar with their own standard-bearers - 37 percent have no opinion of Angelides and 43 percent are similarly bereft of a personal conclusion when it comes to Westly.
"Most of what you're seeing is just kind of a name recognition," DiCamillo said. "I don't think voters know a lot about Angelides or Westly, but they still have them ahead of Schwarzenegger."
In the race for the Democratic nomination, Angelides led the lineup of potential candidates with 33 percent support, followed by Westly at 19 percent, actor-director and activist Rob Reiner at 15 percent and actor Warren Beatty bringing up the rear at 9 percent. Twenty-four percent were undecided in the Democrats-only survey. Neither Beatty nor Reiner has indicated serious interest in running.
DiCamillo said the poll had little to do with Westly or Angelides or television's "Meathead" or a big-screen Bugsy Siegel.
"First of all," DiCamillo said, "most of it is about the governor."
If the governor's strategists are concerned about his rocky poll showings, they didn't show it Tuesday.
"I am paying about as much attention to these poll numbers as I am to Tom Cruise's lectures about religion, which is to say none," campaign adviser Todd Harris said.
Last week, Schwarzenegger pulled his worst Field Poll-measured approval rating ever, 37 percent. At the same time, voters said they oppose Schwarzenegger's call for a special election.
Tuesday's results provided more evidence of Schwarzenegger's startling slide since last October, when his approval rating stood at 65 percent.
Democrats in particular have turned against him, with 83 percent of the party's registrants now saying they are not inclined to vote for Schwarzenegger. Nonpartisans are tilting against him, 61 percent to 35 percent, while 71 percent of Republicans say they are still inclined to re-elect him.
The numbers were well-received by the Democrats.
"I think this shows Californians want a leader who stands up for working families ... who will protect education, balance the budget and invest in our state's future," said Brian Brokaw, campaign spokesman for Angelides, who has been blasting Schwarzenegger almost from the time of the 2003 gubernatorial recall.
Westly's campaign manager, Jude Barry, characterized the poll as "great news for Democrats and extraordinarily great news for the Westly campaign."
"We are as publicly encouraged as the governor's people are privately worried," Barry said.
As for the controller and the treasurer trumping Reiner and Beatty, DiCamillo said, "I think voters are a little leery now of embracing Hollywood celebrities."
Schwarzenegger's spokesman suggested there's still a long way to go before anybody can conclusively say they've stopped embracing the governor.
"We're talking about a hypothetical ballot matchup that is 17 months away," Harris said. "There's no news here."