Arnold's Approval Rating Nears Davis' Depths
Majority of Californians Oppose Arnold, Special Election
Despite efforts to woo voters with promises of reform, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's job-approval rating keeps on tumbling, with Californians nearly as displeased as before the recall of Gov. Gray Davis, a poll released today says.
Nearly 54 percent of Californians said they disapprove of Schwarzenegger's performance - almost double the 28 percent a year ago and slowly approaching the 67 percent who felt that way about Davis two years ago, according to the poll by the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California.
A majority of Californians also oppose the Nov. 8 special election that Schwarzenegger has championed, as well as many of his reform measures on the ballot.
"Schwarzenegger is crashing and burning because voters now view him as just another partisan politician and because people just want government to do its job," said Tim Hodson, executive director of the Center for California Studies at California State University, Sacramento.
"Voters viewed Schwarzenegger as someone above partisan fights, a moderate and interested in pragmatic fixes," Hodson said. "They were unhappy in 2003 (during the recall) because they perceived the governor was not effective. The fact there's now another election indicates to most voters that government is still not working."
And with little improvement in the state economy - as well as soaring home, health care and gas prices - "they have better things to think about - their families, their own jobs and lives," he said.
The poll results come at a crucial time for the Republican governor, who is pressing a high-stakes gamble with a November special election that some have said could be key to gauging his support for next year's gubernatorial election.
But some analysts said it's early in the process and what happens in November may have little impact next year, noting that if even one of his measures passes, Schwarzenegger will likely declare victory and move on, emphasizing his overall achievements.
"November 2006 is a political eternity from now," Hodson said. Schwarzenegger, who has not yet officially declared whether he will seek re-election, said in a series of radio interviews this week that polls and special-election results would have "nothing to do with my decision if I run again (in 2006), at all."
But Schwarzenegger, waging a multimillion-dollar campaign for his reform initiatives in the special election, faces stiff opposition from labor unions and other Democratic constituencies.
Todd Harris, a spokesman for Schwarzenegger's political team, said today's poll reflects "unions spending millions on TV attacking the governor" in recent weeks - a move he said the governor intends to counter after Labor Day.
For now, however, Schwarzenegger's approval ratings in the institute's polls are at their lowest point ever since hitting a high of 69 percent in June 2004 and beginning to fall. In the previous institute poll, in April of this year, he registered 45 percent approval.
Latinos were particularly harsh in their assessment of the governor, with 73 percent of likely voters disapproving of his overall performance. In recent months, the governor and Latino leaders have clashed over a variety of sensitive issues including driver's licenses for illegal immigrants and border security.
Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, D-Los Angeles, said he was not surprised by the poll, which also found that voters had a low opinion of the Legislature, with only 27 percent approving of its performance.
"We're headed toward a November election that's going to cost $55 million of taxpayer money and we're not going to solve one single problem that the state is confronting today," Nunez said.
The poll found that among Schwarzenegger's key reform measures set for the ballot:
- Proposition 76, on state spending limits, is opposed by 61 percent of those questioned.
- Proposition 77, on redistricting, is opposed by 49 percent.
- Proposition 74, on increasing teacher tenure, has divided voters - with 42 percent opposing and 49 percent supporting.
Of the propositions included in the poll, only Proposition 75, which requires members of public-employee unions to give their consent to use dues for political contributions - and is not part of Schwarzenegger's agenda - garnered majority support.
Though the poll shows Californians still support the initiative process, nearly 60 percent of likely voters had little enthusiasm for the Nov. 8 special election.
"In all regions of the state and across age, education, income and racial-ethnic categories, a majority of likely voters oppose it," said Mark Baldassare, director of the survey for the institute.
A bare majority of Republicans still want the November special election, while most Democrats do not, Baldassare said.
And in a reflection of the support Schwarzenegger has lost, moderates and independents are strongly opposed, he said.
Senate leader Don Perata, D-Oakland, said the Legislature has wasted too much time dealing with the special election.
"I don't understand why the governor's people don't understand what the polls say and what everybody who goes back to their districts understands - that people are angry," Perata said.
"They're expecting problems to be solved and we're having some mindless election that most people don't want, have no clear understanding of and, I don't think, will end up resolving a thing."
In viewing state government as a whole, the level of voter trust shows little improvement since a low of 27 percent in the week before the 2003 recall election.
"Sixty-five percent of residents believe Sacramento is still run by a few big interests rather than for the benefit of all people," Baldassare said.
The poll of 2,004 California adults included 988 likely voters and was conducted Aug. 8-15. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.