Governor is Preparing for Election Battle on TV
Unions ready to rumble on crucial ballot measures
California's special election is just 63 days off and so far, it's shaping up as anything but ordinary.
For starters, the typical Labor Day kickoff for such extravaganzas is on ice until the Democrat-controlled Legislature adjourns on Friday.
Aides to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, who is betting his first-term legacy on three highly contentious ballot initiatives, say he also figures to be scarce along the campaign trail around the bill-signing deadline, Oct. 9.
Still scrambling to raise money, the bodybuilder and former movie star has likened the campaign to an athletic competition. Peaking at just the right time is the key, he said. So aides hope he'll have at least $10 million for a final five-week ad blitz on television leading up to the Nov. 8 vote.
"This is a battle on TV," said Jaime Regalado, executive director of the nonpartisan Pat Brown Institute of Public Affairs. "I don't think anyone in the Schwarzenegger camp gauged the effect the TV blasts against him would have on his profile. So he starts in a hole he's never been in before."
To buttress his campaign team, Schwarzenegger is also planning to rearrange his Sacramento office. Chief of Staff Pat Clarey is expected to serve as day-to-day campaign manager, and Rob Stutzman, his communications director, will play the same role in the campaign.
Peter Siggins, Schwarzenegger's legal affairs secretary, is being considered for a state appellate court position in San Francisco, but he's expected to fill Clarey's chief of staff job.
In the middle of all this, his aides say, the Republican governor is likely to boost his initiative campaign by announcing that he's running for re-election next year.
"Clearly, we're organizing our forces here," Mike Murphy, Schwarzenegger's chief political strategist, said in an interview last week. "We're going to make a major effort and we're going to win."
The other side, which is principally led by a coalition of public employee labor unions, obviously doesn't think so.
Two out of Schwarzenegger's three initiatives - to change the way legislative districts are drawn and to limit state spending - continue to lag in public opinion polls. A measure to make it more difficult for teachers to receive tenure is faring better.
Opponents have spent more than $40 million against Schwarzenegger and the initiatives so far - and the campaign hasn't even started. The California Teachers Association alone has spent more than $20 million and contributed another $22 million just last week.
"The other side has spent $40 million," Stutzman said. "That's basically the equivalent of a campaign against a candidate running for election. The governor has had to endure what no other sitting governor has endured when it comes to how much money they've spent."
Union leaders have pledged to raise millions more to oppose Schwarzenegger's agenda, including the so-called "employee consent" initiative he's expected to endorse and raise money for after the Legislature adjourns. That initiative, Proposition 75, would require unions to get written consent from members before using their dues in political campaigns.
Three unions, representing teachers, prison guards and firefighters, have all agreed to increase their members' dues to help raise millions more for the fight.
Gale Kaufman, whose Alliance for a Better California is the principal campaign group opposing Schwarzenegger, would say only that there will be separate approaches against the spending control, teacher tenure and employee consent measures.
"Each one will have different thematics and different campaigns, but all of them are part of an unnecessary special election called by the governor," she said.
Since it was Schwarzenegger who picked the fight, it's no surprise the other side - especially the CTA - has spent so much, Kaufman said.
"I think that when the governor's entire campaign agenda seems to be a direct attack on education, coupled with the fact that he broke his promise on the money that was owed to education, it's not a surprise that the CTA would use their lobbying efforts and their wherewithal to make sure voters understand the severity of the budget crisis that faces education in this state," Kaufman said.
"That's why they (CTA) exist, and that's what they're doing."
With last week's statewide Field Poll showing the Legislature's approval rating (27 percent) even lower than Schwarzenegger's (36 percent), the governor will try to fashion the debate this way: his "reform" measures vs. the Legislature and status quo.
"Clearly, this is going to be a referendum on 'Do we want real reform or do we want to stay the course?' " Murphy said. "There has been so much focus on the governor, people have forgotten how unpopular the Legislature is. We'll work to remind them of that."
Murphy, who works for several other Republican politicians and also dabbles on the side in Hollywood, said he'll spend much of the next two months living in a downtown Sacramento hotel room.
He scoffed at suggestions from opponents who've said Schwarzenegger's declining popularity will make it hard to use him as the main pitchman in an advertising campaign for his proposals.
"We think the governor is an asset, and he will be very visible," Murphy said. "We think the campaign will move his numbers up."
Aides to the governor also said voters should expect to see him less at hoopla-filled shopping center rallies, which he used to good effect during the gubernatorial recall and his earlier initiative campaigns, and more at serious-sounding town hall meetings and "Ask Arnold" events.
These presumably would reflect what Schwarzenegger and his political team say is the more sober message of his ballot proposals.
"These are important and serious issues, and the campaign will reflect that," said Todd Harris, a spokesman for the Schwarzenegger political team.
When the campaign does begin in earnest, Schwarzenegger will have more than just labor leaders to contend with as the Nov. 8 vote nears. Democratic statewide officeholders Phil Angelides, California's treasurer, and Steve Westly, the controller, both plan to actively campaign against his initiatives on legislative redistricting, state spending and teacher tenure. Both men also have said they intend to run for governor next year.
"These initiatives will be the story between now and Nov. 8," said Jude Barry, Westly's chief political strategist, "so Steve will be out campaigning day to day."
"Our job is to do whatever we can to help the alliance," Barry said. "If it helps the Westly candidacy, that's a secondary benefit."
Angelides, who also can boost his name identification with voters in a short campaign against Schwarzenegger's proposals, will be just as busy, said spokesman Dan Newman.
"Phil Angelides will continue to be the strongest voice in opposing Governor Schwarzenegger's continued attempts to bring the Bush agenda to California," Newman said.
In the end, the election will be about which side can get voters to turn out. And whether Schwarzenegger can convince Californians that his version of reform is better than - at least for now - doing nothing.
"Even in an unpopular special election, you get a core that turns out to vote and they tend to be more conservative, so that helps the governor," Regalado said.
"Democrats are going to have to continue the drumbeat to emphasize that Schwarzenegger is making war on ordinary people and those who represent ordinary people, obviously the unions. They're going to have to do that to make sure they get their troops out."