Schwarzenegger's Anti-Union Strategy Bears Political Risk in Blue State
When Arnold Schwarzenegger ran for governor two years ago as a nonpartisan reformer, it was hard to envision him turning into a union basher. But with seven weeks left before the Nov. 8 special election, that's exactly what he appears to be.
At the state Republican Party convention here this weekend, Schwarzenegger publicly embraced Proposition 75, the ballot initiative designed to defund the political activity of public employee unions. With that, the governor can no longer credibly suggest that his "year of reform" agenda is anything other than a partisan war on Democrats and their allies.
That's a hard war to win in California, where fewer than 35 percent of voters identify themselves as Republicans. And the party's two standard bearers in the state - Schwarzenegger and President George W. Bush - have seen their job approval ratings hit an all-time low.
Schwarzenegger is also trying to pass three other initiatives that would change the way Sacramento does business: Prop. 74, which would make it harder for teachers to get tenure; Prop. 76, his state spending cap; and Prop. 77, which would strip lawmakers of the power to draw their own districts. While opponents have complained that those measures amount to a pure Republican power grab, none goes as directly to the heart of Democratic power in the state as the union dues measure.
Not surprisingly, the governor was cheered wildly at the GOP convention when he announced he was supporting Prop. 75. Polls show it is the only one of the four "reform" initiatives currently enjoying majority support.
But by adopting the measure as one of his own, Schwarzenegger faces a steep challenge. He must spend the next seven weeks convincing voters - especially Democrats and Independents, who have abandoned him in droves - that public employee union "bosses" are the real obstacles to meaningful reform. And he must somehow do this without stigmatizing rank and file workers.
There's little doubt that public employee unions, especially the California Teachers Association, wield a heavy stick in the Democrat-controlled Legislature. And the notion that such unions can skim extra dues from their members to fund political activity that benefits only Democrats may indeed smack of "Soprano fundraising," in the words of Mike Murphy, Schwarzenegger's political consigliere.
Speaking with reporters Friday, Murphy said the campaign's polling showed two-thirds of California voters believe public employee union leaders have too much power in the political process and would be receptive to Schwarzenegger's message. Now that the governor has begun to campaign in earnest, Murphy argued, voters will tune in and understand.
"The preseason's over, now the campaign has begun," Murphy said. "Once they get the facts, once they focus - all of which is starting now - we think we're going to do very well with Democrats, we're going to do very well with Independents."
The problem with that strategy is that the campaign isn't starting now. It started months ago, after Schwarzenegger announced his "year of reform" measures and a coalition of labor unions took to the airwaves, undermining his message before he had the chance to deliver it.
Instead of allowing Schwarzenegger to cast unions as yet another "special interest" blocking much-needed change in Sacramento, the coalition's ads presented regular workers - teachers, nurses and firefighters - as the faces of organized labor. And they did so with devastating effect.
"The governor's looking for people to blame. People like me," was the tagline in one series of ads, where firefighters, home health workers and teachers look grimly into the camera. Another ad, featuring a trio of policemen, accuses the governor of broken promises. "You're not the governor we thought you'd be," they say.
For his part, Murphy said he wasn't concerned that opponents had gone to such length - and expense - to discredit the initiatives. Using an elaborate piano-dropping-on-head analogy, he suggested Schwarzenegger would have ample time and money to fight back.
"They have three grand pianos, they dropped two of 'em, they have one left. We have one grand piano,' Murphy said. "We have one piano, we have enough to saturate a message now and voters are starting to pay attention. We are confident the governor's reform message will prevail."
Perhaps that's so. But rather than dropping on Schwarzenegger's head, labor's grand pianos created a deep hole in the ground. It's a hole he'll need to climb out of, and soon, before voters even begin to hear what he has to say.